How Accurate Are Roblox CCU Forecasts? A Backtest of 2,002 Experiences
·4 min read
You cannot see a Roblox competitor's retention: D1, D7 and D30 belong to the experience's owner. Public data offers three honest proxies, and each one misleads in a known way.
By Tu Dang · Founder of ROLearn
· 3 min read

You cannot measure a competitor’s retention on Roblox. D1, D7 and D30 retention describe whether a cohort of new players came back, and Roblox shows them only to people with analytics permission for that experience. What public data does offer is three signals that move with retention: how well concurrent players hold over months, how many visitors favorite the experience, and how recently it was updated. Used together, and with their blind spots in view, they answer the question a studio actually has: is this competitor keeping an audience?
Retention is a cohort measure: of the players who first played on a given day, what share returned one, seven or thirty days later. Computing it needs to know which individual players came back, and that record belongs to the experience. Roblox’s analytics documentation states that without analytics permission for a game, only public stats such as concurrent players and like ratio are visible. That boundary applies to every outside tool, ROLearn included: a competitor’s exact D7 quoted by a third party is an estimate, however it is presented.
| Public signal | What it suggests | How it misleads |
|---|---|---|
| Concurrent-player persistence: average concurrent players now as a share of a few months ago | Whether the experience keeps an audience over time | It can hold while players churn and are replaced by new ones; it also moves with season and with paid promotion |
| Favorites per 1,000 visits | How many visitors chose to save the experience to come back to | Favorites accumulate over years and are rarely removed, so old experiences carry history that says little about today |
| Update recency | Whether someone is still investing in the experience | An update date shows that something changed, not how much, and the public data gives only the latest date |
Concurrent-player persistence is the strongest of the three. Take the average concurrent players over a recent month and divide by the average a few months earlier. A ratio near or above 1 means the experience is holding its audience; a ratio near 0 means it has lost it. Use monthly averages, not single days, because daily readings swing with weekends and events.
Favorites per visit separates experiences that people meant to come back to from ones they tried once. Compare experiences of similar age, because the count only ever grows.
Update recency is a tie-breaker. An experience whose player count is falling and whose last update was months ago is unlikely to recover on its own.
The two Roblox worlds published by e.l.f.’s group show how the proxies read in practice. These are real public figures from ROLearn’s tracking, as of 23 October 2026.
October as a share of May 2026
October as a share of May 2026
Glow Up! against e.l.f. UP!
| e.l.f. UP! (tycoon, late 2023) | Glow Up! (dress-up, December 2025) | |
|---|---|---|
| Average concurrent players, May 2026 | 18 | 125 |
| Average concurrent players, 1 to 22 October 2026 | 2 | 184 |
| Persistence, October as a share of May | 10% | 147% |
| Favorites per 1,000 visits | 4.3 | 7.0 |
| Last updated | 31 August 2026 | 21 October 2026 |
All three signals point the same way. The newer world kept more than its May audience, visitors favorite it more often, and it was updated last week. The older world kept a tenth of its May audience and has not been updated since the end of August. A studio would read the first as an experience that holds players and the second as one that has lost them.
What the example still cannot say is why. Glow Up! may be retaining the same players or replacing them with new ones from discovery; only its owner can tell. The full comparison is in the e.l.f. case study.
No. D1, D7 and D30 retention are part of an experience’s analytics, which only people with analytics permission for that experience can see. Any tool that quotes a competitor’s exact D7 is estimating, not measuring.
How well an experience’s concurrent players hold over several months, read alongside favorites per visit. Neither is retention: concurrent players can hold while players churn and are replaced by new ones.
Concurrent players count who is in the experience at a moment, not whether they are the same people as last week. Strong discovery can replace leaving players with new ones and keep the count steady while D7 retention drops.
Tu Dang. "Can You Measure a Competitor's Retention on Roblox? What Public Data Can and Cannot Show." ROLearn Intelligence, October 24, 2026. https://intelligence.rolearn.dev/analysis/roblox-competitor-retention-data

Tu Dang
Founder of ROLearn
I study how games become businesses, media channels, and virtual economies.
View author profile →One decisive insight on games, brands, and virtual worlds, every month.

Tu Dang
Founder of ROLearn
I study how games become businesses, media channels, and virtual economies.
Market data
ROLearn records concurrent players, visits and favorites for the Roblox experiences it tracks, so the proxies in this piece can be read for any competitor.
One decisive insight on games, brands, and virtual worlds, every month.